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Running a forecast

Configuring a custom dispatch model run

For a truly bespoke forecast, we can complete custom runs for you to match the exact configuration of your site in the NEM.

Custom runs enable full flexibility for all of the parameters you can see in the Run Library table, as well as some parameters that are not listed there. You can configure the following:

Required parameters

These parameters are mandatory for generating a forecast.

  • Region and Sub-region: Specify the NEM region for your battery. You can select from Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania. For assets in Queensland or New South Wales, you will also need to specify a sub-region (e.g., North, Central, South) to more accurately model local network conditions and constraints.

  • Rated Power: The maximum continuous power output of your battery energy storage system, measured in megawatts (MW). This can be set from 5 MW to 300 MW.

  • Duration: The amount of time your battery can discharge at its rated power before being fully depleted, measured in hours. You can configure this from 6 minutes (0.1 hours) up to 8 hours.

  • Max Daily Cycles: This sets a limit on the maximum number of full charge-discharge cycles your battery can perform in a single day. This is a key parameter for managing battery degradation and operational strategy. You can set this to a value between 0 and 3.

  • Commercial Operational Date: The date your asset is expected to become commercially operational. This will be the start date for the forecast, which can run from 1st January 2025 up to 1st January 2040.

Optional parameters

These parameters can be configured to refine your forecast, but have default values if not specified.

  • Location (Latitude and Longitude): Providing the precise geographic coordinates of your asset is optional but highly recommended. This information allows for a more accurate Marginal Loss Factor (MLF) forecast, which refines the revenue forecast based on your battery's specific location in the grid.

  • Scenario: This parameter sets the macroeconomic and energy market outlook for the forecast. You can choose from our 'CENTRAL', 'HIGH', and 'LOW' scenarios, which are based on different assumptions about future fuel prices, demand growth, and renewable energy build-out. Currently, only the 'CENTRAL' scenario is available for this version.

  • Revenue Strategy: Define how your battery will operate to maximize revenue.

    • Energy Only: The battery will perform energy arbitrage, charging when wholesale prices are low and discharging when they are high.
    • Energy with FCAS: The model will co-optimize revenue streams from both energy arbitrage and participation in the eight Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) markets. This allows the battery to dynamically allocate its capacity to the most profitable service at any given time.

  • Model Degradation: You can choose whether to model the effects of battery degradation over the forecast period. If you enable this, the model will account for the gradual loss of capacity and efficiency as the battery ages.

  • Cycles Before Repowering: If degradation is enabled, this parameter defines the total number of equivalent full cycles the battery can undergo before it is "repowered" back to its original nameplate capacity. This can be set up to 15,000 cycles.

  • Round-trip Efficiency: The efficiency of a full charge and discharge cycle as a percentage. The default value is 88%, but you can set a custom value between 1% and 100% to match your specific hardware.

  • MLF Forecast: Choose how Marginal Loss Factors are applied to your forecast.

    • Modo Energy: Uses our in-house, location-specific MLF forecast.
    • No MLFs applied: Assumes an MLF of 1 for the entire forecast, meaning no transmission losses are factored in.
    • Custom: This feature is not yet available but will allow you to upload your own MLF forecast.

Features in development

The following features are not yet available but are under development.

  • Co-location: This parameter will allow you to model a battery that is co-located with a solar or wind farm. This feature is not available in the current version but is under development.

Updated about 1 month ago