Renewable generation

Intermittent renewable generation is modelled using capacity factors derived from historical availability data provided by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).

A capacity factor is defined as the ratio of actual energy generated to the total available (installed) capacity of a generator over a given period.

For this model, we utilise 5-minute interval availability data from the year 2023 to construct representative capacity factor profiles for each renewable technology type. These capacity factors are then applied to the projected installed capacity for each 5-minute interval across the forecast horizon, producing granular, technology specific forecasts of renewable energy generation.

For future new entrant technologies where historical data is unavailable, we adopt the capacity factor profiles of the most analogous existing technology. Adjustments are then applied to account for the expected performance characteristics of the new entrant. For example, offshore wind is modelled using the profile of onshore wind, with a calibrated uplift to reflect the generally higher capacity factor expected from offshore installations, and therefore will generate more energy per MW of installed capacity.