ERCOT Demand

Nodal Demand

Description

Nodal demand is modeled at the substation level, with an hourly resolution that captures both intraday and seasonal variations. Up to 2034, demand forecasts are constructed using ERCOT’s Regional Transmission Plan (RTP) and Long-Term System Assessment (LTSA) datasets, which provide:

• Weather zone-level hourly load profiles
• Substation-level load distribution factors

Beyond 2034, the modeling shifts to a zonal approach. Here, each weather zone’s demand grows according to an applied annual growth rate specific to that zone, based on historical growth rates. Importantly, this "base" demand growth excludes large industrial load additions related to oil & gas or data centers, which are treated separately.

Additional large load sources are layered on top of the base demand:

• Oil & gas-related industrial demand is incorporated using assumptions from ERCOT’s Permian Basin Reliability Planning Study.
• Non-O&G large loads are included through a bottom-up build, based on known developments.

Central Case

Large loads in the model may exhibit distinct demand profiles based on their function, price responsiveness, and any on‑site behind‑the‑meter generation.

Assumptions and Caveats

• Beyond 2034, demand growth is applied at the weather zone level, without explicit nodal detail.
• Electrification impacts are only included to the extent they are already embedded within the RTP forecasts.
• Non-oil-and-gas large industrial loads are assumed to be 100% self-served, not drawing from the ERCOT grid for their energy needs.

Data Sources