Demand
Demand is the principal component of demand-side inputs to the production cost model. It determines the total amount of energy that has to be generated across the system, where on the supply stack the marginal unit lies and ultimately the price.
Our central scenario forecast for system demand is based on ERCOT's Long-term load forecast. The Long-Term Load forecast is an hourly forecast for the next 10 years, based on forecasted economic data and historical weather from 2006 – 2020.
This data provides an hourly forecast of system-wide demand broken down by both region and demand source for the next 10 years. Demand sources are categorized as follows: Base load, EV load, large flexible loads, rooftop PV. We extend ERCOT's long-term load forecast to 2050 by assuming an average annual growth rate and 15-minute shape for each demand source going forward. Aggregated, sytem-wide demand is shown below.
Assumptions
- For forecast demand, we exclude items listed as 'officer letters' in the ERCOT LTLF.
Updated about 1 month ago