Backtest
To assess the accuracy of our model, we use realized, historical data as inputs and compare the output prices, to histroical real-time prices.
Backtest input data
In the backtest outline below the following historical data is used as input data.
| Input | Historical data set | Methodology |
|---|---|---|
| Energy demand | 60d SCED Generation Resource Disclosure, Hourly load archive | Calculated as sum of SCED base points across all technologies. Zonal split informed by hourly load archive. |
| Ancillary service demand | 2-Day Ancillary Services Reports | Total ancillary service demand is the total of all self-arranged and cleared volume across all ancillary services. |
| Available generation capacity | 60d SCED Generation Resource Disclosure | For each technology type and zone, available generation capacity is calculated as the daily maximum HASL (high ancillary service limit) of online units (those with a telemetered resource status other than OUT). |
| Load factors | 60d SCED Generation Resource Disclosure | For each technology type and zone, load factors are calculated as the ratio of 15-min HSL (high sustained limits) |
| Gas price | Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price | Henry Hub spot prices is used for historical gas pricing without adjustment (other than appropriate unit conversions). |
| Coal price | 60d SCED Generation Resource Disclosure | Volume-weighted median three-part offer bid prices from units with a resource status of CLLIG excluding those of lignite units. |
Backtest results
For the following graphics we compare: 15-minute, realized, real-time bus average (HB_BUSAVG) pricing; and 15-minute, load-weighted average of zonal prices.
Error distribution
Sample price comparisons
Updated 10 days ago