Generation outages
The quantity and timing of outages can significantly erode the supply side of power markets and reduce the maximum amount of energy that can be produced at a given time. Including outages in our capacity forecasts enable us to approriately reflect real-world factors like maintenance when balancing supply and demand.
Historical data
Historical outage data is based on two key datasets provided by ERCOT:
- 60d SCED Generation Resource Data - Plant-level operations data.
- Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) - Nameplate capacities associated with each unit.
60d SCED generation resource data contains the telemetered resource status for all units on the ERCOT system at 15-minute granularity. Cross-referencing the SCED data against the MORA allows us to obtain nameplate capacities for units in SCED and build up an accurate picture of outages on a plant-by-plant level.
Grouping the above data to the technology level, and resampling to daily granularity gives the following available capacity for each technology group.
Forecast
Based on the above, we calculate outage rates for different generation types by considering the ratio of available capacity to nameplate capacity. Based on data from the last three years, the following outage schedules were determined for each technology group. These outage schedules repeat each year of the forecast horizon and are applied to the forecasted nameplate capacity for each technology respectively.
Updated about 2 months ago