For our forward view of ancillary service demand, we refer to ERCOT's Projected Ancillary Service Requirements dataset, which provides an hourly ancillary service requirement for each market each month until 2027. We assume that within a given month, AS procurement remains constant and consistent with ERCOT's projections. To extend this forecast forward until 2050, we assume the final year of ERCOT's numbers continues indefinitely, giving us an hourly ancillary service procurement target.

Assumptions

Single ancillary service market

In reality, there are several ancillary service markets: RRS, Regulation Up and Down, Non-spin, and ECRS. Our modeling treats all ancillary services homogenously and considers them a single market.