Generation capacity
The amount of generation capacity installed is the principal component of the supply-side inputs to production cost modeling. It determines the maximum amount of energy that can be produced at a given time, reflects the relative proportions of each technology and how they evolve.
Our central view of the capacity mix in ERCOT is a blend of various datasets, namely:
- EIA Monthly Electric Generator Inventory
- ERCOT Interconnection Queue
- 2023 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Specifically, we use Table 54.and Table 56. from 2023 AEO 'Low Zero-Carbon Technology Cost' scenario.
Our research shows that projects in the Interconnection Queue typically take longer to come online than projected. To account for this, we assume that solar projects will take twice as long and wind and battery projects will take three times as long to come online as projected.
We also slightly modify the EIA Annual Energy Outlook capacity projections based on IRR numbers from earlier forecast runs. We slightly increased the buildout of renewables and OCGTs. We also smooth out the timeline of deployment to be linear.
We combine the two datasets by layering stacking planned resources on top of existing resources, then layering on additional capacity forecast in the EIA Annual Energy Outlook.
Updated 3 months ago